JULY 15, 2015

AZCD1 field firming up

Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu the favorite among likely GOP primary voters

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PHOENIX – MBQF, a public affairs and consulting firm, announced results of a recent survey dealing with the potential Republican candidates in Arizona’s upcoming open seat race for the First Congressional District.

The recent Supreme Court ruling regarding independent redistricting paves the way to clarifying the Arizona political landscape. The candidates in the survey are the “potential field” as they have recently sent signals both internally and externally that they are strongly considering their candidacy AZCD1.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters in the now “open” AZCD1 swing district.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 511 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on July 6, 2015, the survey calculates a 4.32% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

The exact question was phrased:
“If the election were held today for the Republican primary for Congress in your district, which of the following candidates, listed in random order, would you be most likely to vote for? After hearing the options, you can press 8 to repeat the options.”

AZ GOP CD1 Primary                      2016 July 6, 2015 Results
Pinal County Sheriff, Paul Babeu             37.77%
Former Arizona Secretary of State,
           Ken Bennett                               12.33%
Businessman, Gary Kiehne                     10.37%
Arizona RUCO Director,
            David Tenney                             4.11%
Former State Senator,
          Jonathan Paton                             2.74%
Arizona Speaker of the House,
           Rep. David Gowan                       1.57%
Unsure/Undecided                                 31.12%

Michael Noble, an advisor to Sheriff Paul Babeu, issued the following statement, “While the primary is still 13 months away, Sheriff Babeu would begin the campaign as the clear front-runner among Republicans in CD 1. This is no surprise considering Sheriff Babeu’s national leadership and profile on border security issues and his deep support in Pinal County, which encompasses 28% of CD 1.”

For more information about this survey, or a summary of topline data and wording, please contact MBQF Consulting. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.32%.

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